|
|
Disruption generally refers to a major change that interrupts the normal course of already established processes. These changes are always accompanied by uncertainty, rejection, excitement and euphoria — these are the different faces of innovation. But the moments in which changes in society's paradigm actually occur are rare: caravels in the 15th century, railways in the 19th century, automobiles in the early 20th century, the Internet in the late 90s and early 2000s, among many others. others throughout the 200,000 years of humanity. Like a gold rush, innovations attract both entrepreneurs and investors, however, contrary to what it seems, this is one of the most difficult tasks to achieve success. Looking at one of the last revolutions, the internet, we had an effect of “irrational exuberance” in the markets, causing the “dotcom bubble.
Dotcom bubble timeline. Dotcom bubble timeline. Source: flatworldbusiness. Several companies linked to the internet had a tremendous appreciation followed by strong devaluation throughout the cycle and, if we stop to reflect, we only had the consolidation of companies that actually “won” in the Brother cell phone list internet wave in the last decade. Companies like Google (Alphabet), which only had its IPO in 2004, years after the bubble burst; Facebook (Meta), which was only founded in 2004; Netflix, which enabled the spread of streaming . Despite these examples of very successful companies, we had several companies that fell along the way. Will it be different with AI? Will we have investors being more rational and allowing us to find good opportunities amid all the expectations? To answer this question, I really like the following analogy: let's suppose that aliens arrived on Earth and became enchanted with graphite pencils.
A technology that allows writing on objects without the need to use liquid products. These aliens want to buy as many of these pencils as possible. But it's not just one person/company involved in the process of creating the pencil. For the pencil to be produced, wood is needed. In order for wood to be obtained, a saw is needed. For the saw to be produced, we need steel, which, in turn, needs iron ore. Not only that, we need graphite, rubber, aluminum, among many other things. The drastic increase in demand caused by aliens would have effects throughout an entire logistics chain, involving thousands of people and several companies. We wouldn't just have a lottery “winner” who would benefit from a good relationship with her alien friends. Certainly, we would have several companies that would emphasize that they sell pencils to attract the attention of entrepreneurs and investors on the journey after the holy grail or the lottery ticket, for example, stationery stores would be targets of investors making advertisements like “here we have pencils.
|
|
发表于 2023-10-9 13:29:30